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Taking a Bayesian route to the Triple Crown

This article was originally published in The Gray Sheet

Executive Summary

"If you have a prior set of events of eight positive outcomes and zero negative outcomes, and you have an increasing effect as demonstrated by a win of 11 and one-half lengths at Pimlico, what is the likelihood of Smarty Jones winning the Triple Crown?" John Sladky, MD, Emory University, asks attendees at an FDA/Johns Hopkins University-sponsored symposium on Bayesian statistical analysis May 21. For coverage of how Bayesian approaches can enhance medical device clinical studies, see story: 1CDRH Promotes Bayesian Tool To Speed Approvals; Statistical Rigor Required...

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